Election 2016 Notes

My prediction two days out was not magic, contrary to popular belief. I just looked at the 2012 electoral map and looked at what Romney won. I saw Ohio and Florida, and just added up the electoral votes if it went the other way - which should have been easy for a slightly stronger candidate than Romney. And that is what happened. Boring election, and boring results if you know basic math. Not even calculus or statistics.

Couple more notes. I also note that he swept the Midwest and Rust belt, except Illinois, which confirms a lot of what we chatted about for over a year: Trump is the classic working class union Democrat candidate. This has changed American politics and put Union Democrats under the same big tent as traditional Republican voters, which is an omen for the Democratic Party, if they do not come up with a strategic response. So, Trump pulled a Reagan here: pulled another demographic into the Republican ranks, which we must admit in retrospect, is quite genius because he pulled it off against all conventional wisdom. A good side effect is that this new Union working class influence in the Republican Party will attenuate the craziness of the so-called Evangelicals with more earthy common sense. The Democrats will also be seen as traitors if they pursue their conventional strategy of importing new voters. So, they will have to change their game or keep losing. This is a realignment on the order of Ronald Reagan in 1980 with the South being brought permanently into the tent. The narrative changes from the boring "liberal versus conservative" to "Local and National Interest First versus International Interest First." More respect for national uniqueness like Russia, France, China, English, Scottish, etc. And more respect for States Rights inside America, if I can guess. State uniqueness and autonomy should improve. American bullying of locals should be reduced a lot - perhaps a slashing of the CIA budget, and less American fraud and corruption in overseas elections. Politics comes closer to home rather than looking thousands of miles away at people we do not know nor care about. Bernie Sanders voters should feel more at home - not totally satisfied, but should feel left alone, more or less.

Actually, if Trump won Pennsylvania, the Democrats have been crushed as a national party. This is probably the biggest news of the night. If Trump took a Northeastern State (PA), he has entered the territory of the Democrat core, and has completely realigned politics. So, he killed the Republican Party in the primaries, and killed off the National Democrats in the General election if he took PA. This would be like Clinton winning Alabama or something like that. So, this changes the power dynamic of the last 36 years. So, look for this: The Democrats will get insane and push illegal and legal immigration (or they are dead) but this will be seen as treason at this point, so, it is not a good night to be a leftist Democrat - for the next 10 years or so, too. I did not see this coming - winning of Pennsylvania. Wow.

In conclusion, you cannot say he is crazy any longer. The guy is a freaking genius. Which is why his enemies will continue to be defeated because he rewrote the play book and they are playing by the old rule book. The guy just refuses to lose...